Machine learning based prediction of outcomes associated with populations of users

ABSTRACT

A system analyzes periodically collected data associated with entities, for example, users, servers, or systems. The system determines anomalies associated with populations of entities. The system excludes anomalies from consideration to increase efficiency of execution. The system may rank the anomalies based on relevance scores. The system determines relevance scores based on various factors describing the sets of entities. The system may present information describing the anomalies based on the ranking. The system may use a machine learning based model for predicting likelihoods of outcomes associated with sets of entities. The system generates alerts for reporting the outcomes based on the predictions.

CROSS-REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS

This application claims the benefit of U.S. Provisional Application No.62/447,444, filed Jan. 18, 2017, which is hereby incorporated byreference in its entirety.

BACKGROUND

This invention relates in general to analyzing populations representingsets of entities, for example, sets of users in general and morespecifically to machine learning based model for predicting outcomesassociated with the populations.

Systems store information describing certain entities, for example,users, servers, or websites. For example, an online system may be usedto collect data describing users, for example user feedback. Systemsanalyze such data to identify outcomes associated with sets of entities.For example, a system nay report specific types of actions taken by aset of user as compared to different actions taken by another set ofusers. For example, an organization may be interested in how differentsets of users are acting in response to certain change associated withthe organization. However, conventional techniques for reporting suchdata report the data after the fact, for example, after the users havetaken certain action. Organizations may be interested in knowing thetype of action that a particular population of users is likely to takein advance so that they can take preventive measures to prevent certainactions from taking place Conventional techniques that report suchinformation after the fact are often ineffective for purposes of takingpreventive actions to prevent certain outcome associated with apopulation.

SUMMARY

An online system stores information describing users in a database. Inan embodiment, the online system uses a machine learning model to mapthe data collected to outcomes associated with sets of users. The onlinesystem generates alerts based on the outcomes associated with sets ofusers as determined by the machine learning based model. The onlinesystem presents information describing the alerts, for example, via auser interface that allows users to inspect the generated alerts.

A set of users is also referred to herein as a population and isspecified using a filter based on user profile attributes, for example,set of users including male users in the age group 30-50. An outcome mayrepresent information describing the users that is relevant to a timeinterval associated with the data collection, for example, an actionthat users of a population are likely to take, an aggregate measure ofsentiment associated with users of the set, a metric indicative ofperformance of the users, a metric indicating a risk associated with theset of users, a metric indicating safety associated with the set ofusers, and so on. In an embodiment, the online system performs periodicdata collection to obtain information from the users. For example, theonline system may periodically present questions to users and receiveresponses from the users.

The machine learning model extracts features describing the datacollected. The machine learning model is trained using historical dataassociated with various populations. The machine learning model may betrained for a specific organization or for a plurality of organizationshaving one or more common attributes, for example, all organizationsassociated with a particular industry.

In an embodiment, the feature vector provided as input to the machinelearning model comprises features describing anomalies associated withpopulations. An example of an anomaly is an aggregate value based on acollected attribute for a population of users exceeding a benchmarkvalue by more than a threshold value. Another example of an anomaly isan aggregate value based on a collected attribute for a population ofusers exceeding a previous aggregate value for the population of usersobtained during a previous data collection.

Although embodiments describe generation of alerts related to users, thetechniques described herein are applicable to other entities, forexample, servers, websites, objects, and so on. For example, the onlinesystem may periodically collect data describing a set of servers andanalyze various subsets of the servers to generate alerts describingcertain subsets of servers. Similarly, the online system mayperiodically collect data describing a set of websites and analyzevarious subsets of the websites to generate alerts describing certainsubsets of websites.

The features and advantages described here and the following detaileddescription are not all-inclusive. Many additional features andadvantages will be apparent to one of ordinary skill in the art in viewof the drawings, specification, and claims hereof.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 is a diagram of a system environment for creating alerts based onuser responses, in accordance with an embodiment of the invention.

FIG. 2A is a diagram of system architecture of an online system forgenerating alerts based on user responses, in accordance with anembodiment of the invention.

FIG. 2B is a diagram of system architecture of the alert generationmodule of the online system, in accordance with an embodiment of theinvention.

FIG. 3 shows a flowchart illustrating a process for generating alertsbased on user responses, in accordance with an embodiment of theinvention.

FIG. 4 shows a flowchart illustrating a process for generating alertsassociated with populations based on user responses, in accordance withan embodiment of the invention.

FIG. 5 shows a flowchart illustrating a process for generating alertsbased on a machine learning model, in accordance with an embodiment ofthe invention.

FIG. 6 shows the process of training and using a machine learning modelfor generating alerts, in accordance with an embodiment of theinvention.

FIG. 7 shows a flowchart illustrating a process for pruning anomaliesfor generating alerts efficiently, in accordance with an embodiment ofthe invention.

FIG. 8 shows a flowchart illustrating a process for pruning anomaliesfor generating alerts efficiently, in accordance with another embodimentof the invention.

FIG. 9 shows a flowchart illustrating a process for ranking anomaliesfor generating alerts efficiently, in accordance with an embodiment ofthe invention.

FIG. 10 illustrates an exemplary user interface representing a dashboardfor presenting information describing a data collection, in accordancewith an embodiment of the invention.

FIG. 11 illustrates an exemplary user interface for presenting a summaryof alerts (or anomalies), in accordance with an embodiment of theinvention.

FIG. 12 illustrates an exemplary user interface presenting informationdescribing alerts associated with a set of populations, in accordancewith an embodiment of the invention.

FIG. 13 illustrates an exemplary user interface presenting informationdescribing a set of positive alerts, in accordance with an embodiment ofthe invention.

FIG. 14 illustrates an exemplary user interface presenting informationdescribing a set of negative alerts, in accordance with an embodiment ofthe invention.

The figures depict various embodiments of the present invention forpurposes of illustration only. One skilled in the art will readilyrecognize from the following discussion that alternative embodiments ofthe structures and methods illustrated herein may be employed withoutdeparting from the principles of the invention described herein.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

System Environment

FIG. 1 is a diagram of a system environment for analyzing alerts oranomalies based on data collected from users, in accordance with anembodiment of the invention. The users 115 interact with the onlinesystem 100 using client devices 105. Some embodiments of the onlinesystem 100 and client devices 105 have different and/or other modulesthan the ones described herein, and the functions can be distributedamong the modules in a different manner than described here.

The online system 100 comprises a user interface manager 110, an alertgeneration module 140, and a user interface manager 110. The onlinesystem 100 may include other modules than those shown in FIG. 1 , forexample, modules shown in FIG. 2 . FIG. 1 and the other figures use likereference numerals to identify like elements. A letter after a referencenumeral, such as “105A,” indicates that the text refers specifically tothe element having that particular reference numeral. A referencenumeral in the text without a following letter, such as “105,” refers toany or all of the elements in the figures bearing that reference numeral(e.g. “105” in the text refers to reference numerals “105A” and/or“105N” in the figures).

The user interface manager 110 is configured to present user interfacesvia client devices 105. The user interface manager 110 presents userinterfaces with questions or request 120 and allows user to provideresponses 130 comprising answers to the questions. The online system 100may be associated with an organization, for example, a company, anenterprise, a social group, and the like. Accordingly, users of theonline system may be members of the organization. In an embodiment, theuser interface manager 110 presents surveys comprising questions tousers requesting information from the users in the form of responses tothe questions.

The client device 105 used by a user 115 for interacting with the onlinesystem 100 can be a personal computer (PC), a desktop computer, a laptopcomputer, a notebook, a tablet PC executing an operating system, forexample, a Microsoft Windows®-compatible operating system (OS), Apple OSX®, and/or a Linux distribution. In another embodiment, the clientdevice 105 can be any device having computer functionality, such as apersonal digital assistant (PDA), mobile telephone, smartphone, wearabledevice, etc.

The client device 105 executes a client application 125 that allowsusers to interact with the online system 100. For example, the clientapplication 125 executing on the client device 105 may be an internetbrowser that interacts with the online system using the hypertexttransfer protocol (HTTP) and receives markup documents, for example,documents of hypertext markup language (HTML) provided by the userinterface manager 110 of the online system. The internet browser of theclient device 105 renders user interfaces configured by the userinterface manager 110 using the markup language document. In otherembodiments, the client application 125 is a proprietary applicationused by the enterprise associated with the online system that interactswith the online system 100 using a proprietary protocol.

The client application 125 presents a user interface to allow the user115 to interact with the online system 100. The user interface allowsthe user to perform various actions associated with the online system100 and view information provided by the online system 100. In anembodiment, the online system 100 configures a user interface forpresenting to the user 115 via the client application 125. The userinterface presents one or more widgets that allow a user to enterresponses to questions, for example, a text box. The responses providedby users include feedback in the form of ratings and text, comments, andso on.

The online system 100 performs data collection by presenting users withquestions and receiving answers to the questions. The online system 100stores the data collected in the form of answers received as collectedattributes. For example, a collected attribute may indicate a ratingprovided by a user to certain action taken by the organization. Anothercollected attribute may represent a level of satisfaction of the user.Another collected attribute may represent information describing aparticular aspect of the work environment of the organization, forexample, availability of resources to perform certain action.

The alert generation module 140 analyzes responses 130 received during adata collection to identify anomalies representing informationdescribing various populations. The information describing thepopulations is represented as alerts 160 which may be presented to auser, for example, an expert via a client application 125. Examples ofalert included a significant decrease in a level of satisfaction ofusers belonging to a particular population, an increase in attritionrate indicating a likelihood that users of a particular population mayquit the organization, and so on. The total number of populations thatcan be analyzed can be extremely large. Each population may correspondto a combination of values of attributes describing the users. Examplesof attributes include age, gender, qualification, type of job, salary ofan employee, a rate at which the user interacts with other users of anorganization, the hours during which a user works in the organization,the number of vacations taken by an employee, the number of users in thedepartment that the user belongs to, and so on. The number ofpopulations may be exponential in the number of attributes describingthe users. As a result, determination of anomalies associated withspecific populations is a highly computation intensive task. Embodimentsof the invention perform efficient computation of the anomalies so thatinteresting patterns can be determined within reasonable time and usingreasonable amount of resources.

The interactions between the client devices 105 and the online system100 are typically performed via a network, for example, via theInternet. The network enables communications between the client device105 and the online system 100. In one embodiment, the network usesstandard communications technologies and/or protocols. The dataexchanged over the network can be represented using technologies and/orformats including the hypertext markup language (HTML), the extensiblemarkup language (XML), etc. In addition, all or some of links can beencrypted using conventional encryption technologies such as securesockets layer (SSL), transport layer security (TLS), virtual privatenetworks (VPNs), Internet Protocol security (IPsec), etc. In anotherembodiment, the entities can use custom and/or dedicated datacommunications technologies instead of, or in addition to, the onesdescribed above. Depending upon the embodiment, the network can alsoinclude links to other networks such as the Internet.

System Architecture

FIG. 2A is a diagram of system architecture of an online system forgenerating alerts based on user responses, in accordance with anembodiment of the invention. The online system 100 includes userinterface manager 110, a user account store 225, anomaly filteringmodule 215, anomaly ranking module 220, anomaly detection module 235,alert generation module 140, response store 230, anomaly store 265,anomaly scoring module 295, and population determination module 270. Inother embodiments, the online system 100 may include additional, fewer,or different modules for various applications. Conventional componentssuch as network interfaces, security mechanisms, load balancers,failover servers, management and network operations consoles, and thelike are not shown so as to not obscure the details of the system.Actions indicated as being performed by a particular module may beperformed by other modules.

The user account store 225 stores information describing users. Theusers may be users of the online system 100 and/or may be associatedwith an organization. The user account store 225 includes a uniqueidentifier for each user. The user account store 225 may includecredentials for each user to verify authenticity of sessions created bythe users. For an online system 100 associated with an organization, theuser account store 225 may include information describing a role of theuser, a department associated with the user, one or more teamsassociated with the user within the organization, a location of the userassociated with the organization, and so on. The user account store 225may include the relation between the user and other users in theorganization, for example, one or more managers of the user and ifapplicable, other users reporting to the user.

In other embodiments of online systems 100, the user account store 225may include biographic, demographic, and other types of descriptiveinformation, such as age, work experience, educational history,interests, gender, hobbies or preferences, location, income, languagesspoken, ethnic background, and the like.

The population determination module 270 determines various populationsbased on a given set of users or entities. A population refers to a setof entities or users. Each entity or user may be represented using arecord stored in a database of the online system 100. For example, ifthe online system is associated with users of an organization, an entitycorresponds to a user or member of the organization. An organization maybe a group of users, for example, a company or an employer that isassociated with various employees.

The population determination module 270 identifies a population byspecifying values for various attributes used to describe the users (orentities) as stored in the user account store 225. For example, apopulation may represent all members that have male gender, anotherpopulation may represent members with male gender that are within agegroup 25-40, another population may represent members with male genderthat are within age group 26-40, another population may representmembers with male gender that are within age group 27-40, and so on. Thenumber of different populations that are possible can be very largesince the number of possible combination of values of each attribute canbe very large. The number of different populations is an exponentialfunction of the number of different attributes used to represent eachuser (or entity) and the number of distinct values possible for eachattribute. The population determination module 270 stores thedescription of various populations identified in the population metadatastore 280. Each population may be described using metadata thatidentifies one or more attributes and possible values of the identifiedattributes.

The population metadata store 280 stores metadata defining variousteams. The population metadata store 280 stores metadata describing eachteam, for example, a team of sales personnel, a team of managers, a teamof developers, a team of members performing testing, a team ofoperators, a team of technicians, a team of customer support personneland so on. The population metadata store 280 or the user account store225 may store associations between teams and users that are members ofan organization. In an embodiment, the population determination module270 identifies a team of users as all users that report to the samemanager or supervisor as indicated by a hierarchy of the organization.The hierarchy of the organization may be determined by analyzing asupervisor attribute of each employer and forming a hierarchical tree ora forest data structure.

In an embodiment, the population determination module 270 determineswhether a population corresponds to a team by analyzing the filterdefining the population. For example, if the filter represents a subsetof users obtained by limiting an attribute defining the team to a nameof a team, the population determination module 270 determines that thepopulation corresponds to a team or a subset of the team. The populationdetermination module 270 stores metadata indicating whether a populationcorresponds to a team or a subset of the team in the population metadatastore 280. In another embodiment, the population determination module270 may determine that a population corresponds to a team by matchingthe set of users corresponding to the team with the set of userscorresponding to the population. The population determination module 270determines that the population corresponds to the team if the two setsare determined to have an overlap that is more than a significantthreshold value, for example, there is more than 95% overlap compared tothe population itself and/or the team itself. In an embodiment, if thepopulation determination module 270 cannot associate a team with apopulation, the population determination module 270 stores a flag in thepopulation metadata store 280 indicating that the population could notbe associated with a team.

The data collection module 285 collects data associated with entitiesrepresented by records stored in the online system. For example, if theentities represented by the records are users or members of anorganization, the data collection module 285 collects data from theusers. In an embodiment, the online system 100 sends questions to usersand receives responses to the questions from users. In some embodiments,the online system 100 receives responses to surveys presented to theuser requesting the user to provide information. The data collectionmodule 285 may collect data periodically, for example, every week orevery month. Alternatively, the data collection module 285 collects dataresponsive to receiving a request from a user, for example, a systemadministrator.

The response store 230 stores information describing responses receivedby the online system 100. The response store 230 may store the contentof the response using a representation of text data. In someembodiments, the online system 100 receives responses as a media object,for example, in an audio or video form. In these embodiments, the onlinesystem 100 transcribes the audio from the media object to generate atextual representation of the response.

The user interface manager 110 presents the user with a surveycomprising one or more questions requesting answers from the user. Thesurvey also allows a user to provide information that is not associatedwith specific questions, for example, by allowing the user to enter aresponse as text about the organization or a specific event or anyparticular issue. The online system 100 tracks whether a response wasprovided in response to a particular question. Accordingly, the responsestore 230 stores information associating a response with a question. Theresponse store 230 may store information associating the response with aparticular survey and a question within the survey.

The anomaly detection module 235 analyzes the data collected by the datacollection module 285 to detect anomalies associated with sets orrecords associated with entities. In an embodiment, the entitiesrepresent users and the anomalies are associated with populations, eachpopulation representing a set of users, for example, a set of users ofan organization. In an embodiment, the anomaly detection module 235determines an anomaly by determining certain aggregate values based onresponses received from users. The anomaly detection module 235determines that an anomaly exists for a population if an aggregate valuebased on data collected form users of that population differs from acorresponding benchmark value by more than a predetermined thresholdvalue. The anomaly detection module 235 may determine an anomaly basedon specific attributes representing data collected, for example,responses indicating employee satisfaction in a company or organization.

The anomaly detection module 235 may use various types of benchmarks. Inan embodiment, the anomaly detection module 235 uses benchmarks that arereceived by the online system 100, for example, from an expert or froman external system. The benchmark may represent an industry standardvalue of a particular metric. The benchmark may represent an value of aparticular metric determined for a set of organizations, for example,all organizations in a particular region or location, all organizationsassociated with a particular type of industry, all organizations havinga particular size as determined by number of users of the organizationor by revenue or profitability of the organization. In an embodiment,the online system 100 determines the benchmark values based on variousorganizations associated with the online system 100. For example,various organizations using the online system 100 may provide results oftheir data collection to the online system 100, thereby allowing theonline system 100 to calculate a benchmark value.

In an embodiment, the benchmark represents a corresponding aggregatevalue determined to data collected previously by the data collectionmodule 285. For example, the anomaly detection module 235 may detect ananomaly if an aggregate value based on data collected for a particularmonth exceeds more than a threshold value compared to the previousmonth. As another example, the anomaly detection module 235 may detectan anomaly if an aggregate value based on data collected for aparticular month exceeds more than a threshold value compared to amoving average based on various data collections.

In another embodiment, the anomaly detection module 235 uses a benchmarkrepresenting the corresponding aggregate value based on data collectedfor another population. For example, the anomaly detection module 235may detect an anomaly if an aggregate value based on data collected fora particular population differs by more than a threshold compared to thecorresponding aggregate value for a larger population that is a supersetof the particular population. For example, the anomaly detection module235 may detect an anomaly if an aggregate value for a team differs bymore than a threshold compared to the aggregate value for the entireorganization or for a department of the organization if the team belongsto that department.

The anomaly detection module 235 stores the detected anomalies inanomaly store 265. The anomaly store 265 may store various attributesdescribing an anomaly. An example of an attribute describing an anomalyis a time period associated with the anomaly indicating when the anomalyoccurred, for example, the data collection period based on which theanomaly was detected. The anomaly store 265 stores an associationbetween the anomaly and a population (or a set of records associatedwith entities) for which the anomaly was detected. In an embodiment, theinformation describing an anomaly refers to a record stored in thepopulation metadata store 280 describing a population for which theanomaly was observed.

The anomaly store 265 may store a type for the anomaly, the typeindicating how the anomaly was computed, for example, whether theanomaly was computed based on an industry benchmark, statistics based onanother population, or a previous time interval. The anomaly type mayindicate the type of information indicated by the anomaly, for example,a particular type of anomaly may indicate an increase in an aggregatevalue of a particular attribute collected compared to a past timeinterval, another anomaly type may indicate a low aggregate value ofanother type of collected attribute compared to a benchmark value, andso on. The anomaly store 265 also stores any data associated with theanomaly calculation, for example, the details of a benchmark used fordetermining the anomaly, or the details of the previous time intervalused for determining the anomaly, or the details of another populationused for determining the anomaly.

The anomaly detection module 235 may identify multiple anomalies for agiven population. Since the total number of populations that can beidentified is a very large number, the anomaly filtering module 215eliminates certain anomalies from processing. This allows the onlinesystem 100 to reduce the number of anomalies that are processed, therebyincreasing the efficiency of generating alerts associated withanomalies.

The anomaly ranking module 220 determines a relevance score for eachanomaly. The relevance score allows the anomaly ranking module 220 torank various anomalies based on their relevance, thereby allowingselection of anomalies that are more relevant to a viewer. The onlinesystem 100 generates alerts based on the top ranking anomalies.

The anomaly scoring module 295 determines the relevance score for ananomaly based on various factors associated with the anomaly. Variousfactors considered for determining a score associated with an anomalyare further described herein. The anomaly scoring module 295 providesthe scores of the anomalies to other modules, for example, to anomalyranking module 220 for ranking anomalies.

In an embodiment, one or more of the stores of the online system 100,for example, the user account store 225, the anomaly store 265, thepopulation metadata store 280, or the response store 230 are implementedusing relational databases. For example, the user account store 225 maycomprise one or more database tables storing user attributes as columnsof the database tables. Similarly, a response store 230 may storeresponse and attributes of response using one or more database tables.In an embodiment, the database tables storing responses refer to useraccounts in the database tables storing user accounts, for example,using foreign key relationships. Accordingly, the database associateseach response with one or more users, for example, the user who providedthe response. The database may receive queries that join the responseinformation with the user information to generate reports that describeusers associated with the responses.

The user interface manager 110 as described in relation to FIG. 1configures user interfaces for allowing users to interact with theonline system 100. In an embodiment, the user interface manager 110generates markup language documents, for example, HTML documents andsends for display via a client application executing on a client device105. The user interface manager 110 configures markup language documentsthat include various widgets, for example, widgets for presentingquestions represented as text to a user and widgets for receivingresponses as text inputs.

The report generation module 275 generates reports for display via theclient device 105. In an embodiment, the report generation module 275stores database queries corresponding to each report. The databasequeries process data stored in the various data stores of the onlinesystem 100. The report generation module 140 further allows users tomodify existing queries or enter new queries to generate new reports.For example, the report generation module 275 may present results ofexecuting a particular report and allows the user to specify filters tomodify the result, to select specific columns of the report to display,or to specify a type of visualization used for presenting the results.The user interface manager renders for display, reports generated by thereport generation module 275.

The alert generation module 140 generates alerts based on various typesof information including anomalies associated with populations. In anembodiment, the alert generation module 140 uses machine learningtechniques to determine values of certain metrics that are used forgenerating alerts. The metrics may describe certain attributes ofpopulations (or sets of entities associated with records stored in theonline system 100). For example, a metric may define a predictedattrition rate for a population indicating a likelihood of members ofthe population leaving the organization.

FIG. 2B is a diagram of system architecture of the alert generationmodule of the online system, in accordance with an embodiment of theinvention. The alert generation module 140 comprises a featureextraction module 240, a training module 250, a training data store 260,a metric model 245, an alert builder module 290, and a feature datastore 255. In other embodiments, the alert generation module 140 mayinclude additional, fewer, or different modules for variousapplications. Actions indicated as being performed by a particularmodule may be performed by other modules.

The metric model 245 is a machine learning based model that predictsvalues of a metric describing a population based on input describing thepopulation and data collected by the data collection module 285. Anexample of a machine learning model used by the alert generation module140 is the metric model 245 that determines a value of a particularmetric based on various input features based on user attributes andcollected data. Embodiments may use various machine learning techniques,for example, support vector machine tree-based models, kernel methods,neural networks, splines, or an ensemble of one or more of thesetechniques.

The training data store 260 stores training data for training a metricmodel 245. The training module 250 trains the metric model 245 using thetraining data stored in training data store 260. The feature extractionmodule 240 extracts features from data collected by the data collectionmodule 285 for providing as input to a metric model 245. In anembodiment, the extracted feature vector comprises informationdescribing one or more anomalies, each anomaly associated with a set ofrecords, for example, a set of records storing information describing apopulation. Examples of anomalies used in a feature vector include, ananomaly indicating that an aggregate value based on a collectedattribute exceeds a benchmark value by more than a threshold value, oran aggregate value based on a collected attribute for a populationexceeds a previous aggregate value based on the collected attributevalues for that population obtained during a previous data collection.The feature extraction module 240 stores the extracted features in thefeature data store 255. Further details of various modules within thealert generation module 140 are described herein in conjunction withvarious flowcharts.

In one embodiment, the training data store 260 also includes data setsother than those discussed above, such as a verification data set. Theverification data set also includes input and output data. The trainedmodel may be fed the input data of the verification data set to see ifit is able to generate output that matches or has a threshold measure ofsimilarity to the output data of the verification data. This may be usedto ensure that the model has not been over fitted to the training data.

The alert builder module 290 configures alerts for presentation via auser interface. The alert builder module 290 may configure messages forsending to users based on metrics generated by the metric model 245. Thealert builder module 290 may configure widgets for visualizing one ormore metrics generated by the metric model 245 for displaying via agraphical user interface.

In some embodiments, the system 100 is not an online system but a systemthat communicates with an online system to obtain the necessary userinformation. The system 100 may communicate with the online system, forexample, using APIs provided by the online system. In these embodiments,some modules shown in FIGS. 1 and 4 may run in the system 100, whereasother modules may run in the remote online system. In other embodiments,the processes described herein are executed by any system, for example,an offline system that receives data collected by another system andanalyzes it.

Overall Process

FIG. 3-9 show various processes associated with generating alerts basedon populations, in accordance with various embodiments of the invention.The steps described herein for each process may be executed by modulesother than those indicated herein. Furthermore, the steps may beexecuted in an order different from that indicated in the figures. Forexample, some steps may be performed in parallel or concurrently.

FIG. 3 shows a flowchart illustrating a process for generating alertsbased on user responses, in accordance with an embodiment of theinvention. The online system 100 stores a plurality of records. Eachrecord is associated with an entity, for example, a user, a server, awebsite, and so on. Each record includes attributes describing theentity associated with the record.

The online system 100 identifies a plurality of sets of records. Theonline system 100 specifies a set of record using filtering criteriabased on values of one or more attributes. For example, if X representsan attribute of the entities stored as records, the filtering criteriamay specify a set of values of X or a range of values of X. Accordingly,all entities that have a value of attribute X that satisfies thefiltering criteria are includes in the specified set. The filteringcriteria may specify multiple attributes. The online system 100 mayidentify large number of sets of records since the number ofcombinations of values of various attributes can be very large.

The online system 100 may perform the following steps (320, 330, and340) repeatedly. Various operations (320, 330, and 340) may be repeatedat different frequencies. The online system repeatedly collects dataassociated with various records. The data collected may be obtained froma user associated with the record, for example, if the entityrepresented by the record is a user or if the entity is associated witha user. Alternatively, the data may be collected automatically, forexample, if an entity represents a system or a website, the data may becollected by executing an application programming interface (API) of thesystem or website.

The online system 100 identifies 330 anomalies associated with each setof records based on the collected data. The online system 100 mayidentify an anomaly by comparing the collected data across variouspoints in time and determining that an anomaly exists of an aggregatevalue based on the data collected changes by more than a threshold valueor percentage across two data collections. The online system 100 mayidentify an anomaly by comparing the collected data with a benchmark anddetermining that an anomaly exists of an aggregate value based on thedata collected exceeds a benchmark by more than a threshold value.

The online system 100 selects 340 a subset of the anomalies identified330. The online system 100 may select a subset of anomalies byeliminating one or more anomalies based on certain predeterminedcriteria. In an embodiment, the online system 100 ranks the anomaliesbased on certain relevance score determined for each anomaly and selectsthe top ranking anomalies.

The online system 100 sends 350 alerts based on the selected anomalies.In an embodiment, the online system 100 presents information describingthe anomalies via a user interface. In another embodiment, the onlinesystem 100 generates one or more metrics associated with sets of recordsbased on the anomalies and presents information describing the metricsvia a user interface. In an embodiment, the online system 100 sends 350alerts as messages, for example, via electronic mail.

FIG. 4 shows a flowchart illustrating a process for generating alertsassociated with populations based on user responses, in accordance withan embodiment of the invention. Various steps described in FIG. 4 can begeneralized to process alerts based on other types of entities asdescribed in connection with the process illustrated in FIG. 3 .

The user account store 225 of the online system 100 stores 400 aplurality of records, each record associated with a user. For example,the user account store 225 may store records representing members of anorganization such that each record stores information describing amember of the organization. As another example, the user account store225 may store records representing employees of a company such that eachrecord stores information describing a or an employee of a company. Eachrecord stores attributes describing a user, for example, first name,last name, age, gender, status in an organization or company, salaryearned by the user, a team within the organization such that the user isa member of the team, and so on.

The population determination module 270 identifies a plurality ofpopulations. For example, the plurality of users may represent allmembers of an organization, and each population may represent a subsetof members of the organization. The data collection module 285 collects420 data associated with the users. The data collection module 285 maycollect 420 data periodically, for example, once a week or once a month,or at various intervals as determined by a system administrator. In anembodiment, the data collection module 285 collects 420 data bypresenting a user with requests (or questions) via a user interface andreceiving responses (or answers) from the user. The questions may beprovided as a survey presented to users, for example, members of theorganization.

The steps 430, 440, and 450 shown in the flowchart shown in FIG. 4correspond to the steps 330, 340, and 350 of the flowchart shown in FIG.3 . Accordingly, the anomaly detection module 235 identifies anomaliesassociated with each population based on the collected data. The anomalyfiltering module 215 and/or anomaly ranking module 220 select 440 asubset of the identified anomalies. The alert generation module 140generates and sends 450 alerts based on the selected subset ofanomalies.

Machine Learning Based Metric Determination for Alerts

FIG. 5 shows a flowchart illustrating a process for generating alertsbased on a machine learning model, in accordance with an embodiment ofthe invention. The alert generation module 140 provides 510 variousinputs to the metric model 245 including attributes of a population andanomalies associated with that population. The metric model 245 istrained to generate values of a particular metric and accordinglygenerates 520 values of that metric. In an embodiment, the metricdescribes a likelihood of an outcome associated with a population. Anoutcome represents a particular result indicative of a particular actiontaken by users of an organization, for example, whether a user isplanning on leaving the organization or whether the user is notsatisfied as a result of particular decision taken by the organization.For example, the outcome may represent an action taken by one or moreusers from the population.

The alert builder module 290 configures one or more alerts based on thegenerated metric values. For example, the alert builder module 290 mayconfigure a message describing the metrics for sending to anadministrator. Alternatively the alert builder module 290 may render achart or a visual representation of the metric values for presentationto a user. The alert builder module 290 provides information describingthe alerts to the user interface manager 110 for presenting to a user115 via a client application 125 executing on a client device 105.

FIG. 6 shows the process of training and using a machine learning modelfor generating alerts, in accordance with an embodiment of theinvention. The training module 250 trains the metric model 245 usingtraining data sets stored in the training data store 260. The trainingdata stored in the training data store 260 includes training input dataand expected output data. The training input data includes a trainingset of collected data and user profile attributes. The training datafurther includes an output or answer set of data indicating a metricvalue for given inputs. The training set of metric values may beprovided by users, for example, domain experts. Accordingly, the outputof the metric model 245 for the training set is known a priori.

The training module 250 trains the metric model 245 using featurevectors extracted by the feature extraction module 240 from the trainingdata set stored in training data store 260. In one embodiment, thetraining module 250 feeds the feature data extracted from informationdescribing a population and data collected from users of that populationalong with the desired output data to train the metric model 245 usingmachine learning training techniques, such as supervised learning. In anembodiment, the metric model 245 generates a metric associated with anoutcome representing one or more users of a population taking aparticular action. For example, the metric represents a likelihood ofone or more users of the population taking the particular action. In anembodiment, the metric represents a predicted attrition rate of users ofthe population. In an embodiment, the metric represents a predictedmeasure of satisfaction of users of the population. In an embodiment,the metric represents a likelihood that the aggregate measure ofsatisfaction of users of the population during a future time interval isabove a threshold value. In an embodiment, the metric represents apredicted level of performance of users of the population. In anembodiment, the metric represents a likelihood that the expected levelof performance of users of the population for a future time interval isabove a threshold value.

In one embodiment, the metric model 245 provides a coefficient (or aweight) for each type of feature that may be received as input by themetric model 245. Each feature is assigned a value or converted into avalue and modified by the coefficient. The resulting values are combinedtogether (e.g., by a weighted aggregation or summation) resulting ingeneration of a metric value. Using a training technique, thecoefficients of these features are modified across the entire featuredata input set and so that the generated metric value matches the outputdata of the training set. Initially, a default coefficient may beapplied to each feature. Once the model is trained by the trainingmodule 250, the training module 250 may further verify the accuracy ofthe model using a separate verification data set that includes bothfeature data and output data.

Once the metric model 245 is trained (and validated), the metric model245 generates metric values (non-training) for data collected for apopulation. The metric model 245 uses the same features from any inputpopulation and collected data as the training set. These features arefed into the metric model 245 to determine a value of a metric.

Process for Selecting a Subset of Anomalies

The population determination module 270 may generate a large number ofpopulations for purposes of analysis. As a result a large number ofanomalies may be identified. However certain anomalies may be moresignificant to report compared to others. Accordingly, the online system100 identifies anomalies that are likely to be more valuable for a user.For example, the online system 100 may identify several thousands ofanomalies. The information describing the anomalies may be reviewed by auser. However reporting information based on all the identifiedanomalies may result in presenting excessive information that makes itdifficult to analyze the information. Therefore, the online system 100selects a subset of anomalies for further analysis.

FIG. 7 shows a flowchart illustrating a process for pruning anomaliesfor generating alerts efficiently, in accordance with an embodiment ofthe invention. The anomaly filtering module 215 analyzes the anomaliesto prune several anomalies so that a subset of the identified anomaliesis further analyzed. The anomaly filtering module 215 repeats thefollowing steps (including 710, 720, 730, and 740). The anomalyfiltering module 215 identifies a first anomaly associated with a firstpopulation, for example, anomaly Am associated with population Pm. Theanomaly filtering module 215 identifies a second anomaly associated witha second population that is a superset of the first population, forexample, anomaly An associated with population Pn such that populationPn is a superset of population Pm. For example, population Pn may be adepartment of an organization and Pm may be a team within thatdepartment.

The anomaly filtering module 215 determines whether the two anomaliesare of the same type, for example, whether both anomalies Am and An areof the same type. If the anomaly filtering module 215 determines thatthe two anomalies are of the same type, the anomaly filtering module 215excludes the first anomaly, i.e., anomaly Am from the subset beingdetermined. The anomaly filtering module 215 repeats the above steps toexclude several anomalies. The remaining anomalies that were notexcluded from the subset of the identified anomalies that are furtheranalyzed.

FIG. 8 shows a flowchart illustrating a process for pruning anomalies ina given set of anomalies for generating alerts efficiently, inaccordance with another embodiment of the invention. According to thisembodiment, anomalies associated with larger populations are selectedand all anomalies of the same types associated with smaller populationsthat are subsets of the larger population are excluded. The remaininganomalies are selected for further analysis.

The anomaly filtering module 215 ranks the anomalies in decreasing orderof the sizes of populations associated with the anomalies so thatanomalies associated with larger populations are processed first. Theanomaly filtering module 215 repeats the following steps. The anomalyfiltering module 215 selects an anomaly Ax associated with a populationPx. For the selected anomaly Ax, the anomaly filtering module 215repeats the following steps. The anomaly filtering module 215 selectsanother anomaly Py associated with population Py such that population Pyis a subset of population Px. The anomaly filtering module 215determines if the anomalies Ax and Ay are of the same type. If theanomalies Ax and Ay are of the same type, the anomaly filtering module215 excludes the anomaly Ay from the subset of anomalies beingdetermined. Accordingly, the anomaly filtering module 215 excludes aplurality of anomalies Ay associated with populations that are subsetsof population Px before selecting the next anomaly Ax′ associated withanother population X′.

Ranking Anomalies Based on Relevance Scores

FIG. 9 shows a flowchart illustrating a process for ranking anomaliesfor generating alerts efficiently, in accordance with an embodiment ofthe invention. The anomaly ranking module 220 receives 900 a set ofanomalies, each anomaly associated with a population. The anomalyscoring module 295 determines relevance score for each anomaly. Theanomaly scoring module 295 determines 910 the relevance score for ananomaly based on various factors associated with the anomaly. Theanomaly ranking module 220 receives the relevance scores for theanomalies as generated by the anomaly scoring module 295. The anomalyranking module 220 ranks 920 the anomalies based on the relevancescores. The anomaly ranking module 220 selects 930 a subset of theanomalies based on the ranking. For example, the anomaly ranking module220 selects the top ranking anomalies from the received set ofanomalies. In an embodiment, the alert generation module 140 generatesalerts based on the selected subset of anomalies. The user interfacemanager 110 receives the generated alerts from the alert generationmodule 140 and sends for presentation via a user interface of a clientapplication 125 for display via a client device 105.

The anomaly scoring module 295 determines relevance scores for anomaliesbased on various factors. These factors include: a category associatedwith an anomaly indicating whether the alert is about good informationassociated with the population or bad information, whether the anomalyis about a large population, for example, the entire company (e.g., ananomaly indicating a large deviation of collected data as compared to anindustry benchmark), whether the alert is about a specific team (i.e.,group of people reporting to a manager or supervisor), whether the alertis about overall response rate of users of the entire organizationindependent of specific attributes collected (for example, overallresponse rate for a survey rather than response for specific questionson the survey), or a measure of impact of an attribute associated withthe anomaly, for example, an impact of the attribute on a likelihood ofusers of a population taking a particular action such as leaving theorganization or an impact of the attribute on satisfaction of users.These attributes are described in further details as follows.

The anomaly scoring module 295 determines relevance score for an anomalyassociated with a population based on a category associated with theanomaly. For example, a category indicating whether the anomalycorresponds to a positive news (or good news) or a negative news (or badnews) associated with the population. For example, certain userresponses may be determined to be associated with a negative sentiment.Accordingly, an increase in an aggregate value based on these responsesover time is determined by the system to be indicative of a negativenews. In contrast, certain other user responses may be determined to beassociated with a positive sentiment. Accordingly, an increase in anaggregate value based on these responses over time is determined by thesystem to be indicative of a positive news. In an embodiment, anomaliesindicative of a negative news (or bad news) associated with a populationis ranked higher compared to anomalies indicative of positive news. Thesystem stores associations between types of anomalies and a scoreindicating whether the type of anomaly is positive or negative. In anembodiment, the system identifies an anomaly based on various featuresdescribing the anomaly, for example, the attributes associated with theanomaly, the type of computation performed to determine the anomaly, andso on. In another embodiment, each anomaly is associated with a set ofinstructions used to compute the anomaly. The system stores informationidentifying the sets of instructions corresponding to each anomaly andinformation indicating whether the anomaly is positive or negative.Accordingly, an alert indicating a negative news is more likely to begenerated compared to an alert indicating a positive news.

In an embodiment anomaly scoring module 295 considers a size of thepopulation associated with the anomaly as a factor for determiningrelevance score for the anomaly. Accordingly, the anomaly scoring module295 ranks anomalies associated with larger populations higher thananomalies associated with smaller populations. For example, the anomalyscoring module 295 ranks an anomaly Am associated with a population Pmhigher than an anomaly An associated with population Pn if size ofpopulation Pm is greater than the size of population Pn. As anotherexample, the anomaly scoring module 295 ranks anomalies associated withthe entire organization higher than anomalies associated with smallergroups of users within the organization. The anomaly associated with theentire organization may indicate that an aggregate value of an attributebased on the data collection differs from a corresponding industrybenchmark by more than a threshold value.

In an embodiment, the anomaly scoring module 295 determines relevancescore for an anomaly associated with a population based on a factorindicating whether the population corresponds to a predefined team ofthe organization. For example, the anomaly scoring module 295 ranks apopulation that corresponds to a predefined team higher than anotherpopulation that does not corresponds to a team.

In an embodiment, the anomaly scoring module 295 determines relevancescore for an anomaly based on whether the anomaly represents an overallresponse rate associated with the data collection independent of theattributes collected. For example, if the data collection is performedby presenting a survey to a set of users via a user interface andreceiving responses from the users via the user interface, the overallresponse rate indicates a percentage (or a fraction) of the number ofusers that provided a response to at least one question in the surveywith respect to the total number of users presented with the survey. Theanomaly scoring module 295 ranks anomalies associated with an overallresponse rate higher than anomalies that are associated with specificattributes collected, for example, specific questions on the survey. Forexample, an anomaly indicating an increase in the overall response rateis ranked higher than an anomaly indicating that an aggregate value of aparticular attribute received during a data collection changed by morethan a threshold compared to a previous data collection.

In an embodiment, the anomaly scoring module 295 determines relevancescore for an anomaly associated with an attribute based a measure ofcorrelation between the attribute and an outcome attribute. An outcomeattribute is an attribute that is predetermined to represent aparticular result. The result may be indicative of a particular actiontaken by users of an organization, for example, whether a user isplanning on leaving the organization or whether the user is notsatisfied as a result of particular decision taken by the organization.Accordingly, if X indicates the outcome variable, the anomaly scoringmodule 295 determines correlations of other attributes with respect toattribute X based on previous collections of data. Accordingly, theanomaly scoring module 295 ranks an anomaly A1 higher than anomaly A2 ifanomaly A1 is based on attribute P, attribute A2 is based on attribute Qand correlation between attribute P and attribute X is higher thancorrelation between attribute Q and attribute X.

In an embodiment, the anomaly scoring module 295 determines relevancescore for an anomaly based on a measure of impact of the anomaly,wherein the anomaly is associated with a particular attribute score, forexample, an aggregate value based on an attribute. The anomaly scoringmodule 295 determines the measure of impact of the anomaly as a functionof the number of responses received during a data collection and achange in the attribute score compared to a baseline. The baseline maybe a benchmark value associated with the attribute score or the value ofthe attribute score that was determined previously, for example, duringa previous time interval during which data collection was performed. Inan embodiment, the measure of impact of the anomaly is determined as avalue obtained by multiplying the number of responses with 2^(q), whereq represents the attribute score change compared to the baseline.

In an embodiment, the anomaly scoring module 295 weighs the variousfactor in the following order (such that factors listed earlier areweighted higher): (1) a category associated with the anomaly indicatingwhether the alert is about good information associated with thepopulation or bad information, (2) the size of the population associatedwith the anomaly, (3) factor indicating whether the anomaly is about aspecific team (4) whether the anomaly is associated with the overallresponse rate of users of the entire organization (or a largepopulation) independent of specific attributes collected (5) a measureof correlation between an attribute associated with the anomaly and anoutcome attribute (6) a measure of impact of the attribute associatedwith the anomaly.

User Interfaces

The user interfaces illustrated in FIGS. 10-14 refer to an anomaly as analert. These user interfaces illustrate one way to present informationdescribing anomalies (or alerts) and receiving user interactionsassociated with anomalies. Other embodiments may present the informationin other ways and allow users to perform other types of userinteractions to analyze or view information describing a datacollection.

FIG. 10 illustrates an exemplary user interface 1000 representing adashboard for presenting information describing a data collection, inaccordance with an embodiment of the invention. The online system 100performs data collection periodically and the user interface 1000 showsinformation describing the time of data collection for which informationis currently being presented by the user interface 1000. As shown inFIG. 10 , a pulse refers to an even of an organization when the users ofthe organization are presented with questions, for example, as part of asurvey and requested to provide their responses the questions. The userinterface 1000 shows text 1010 presenting information describing theoverall response rate, for example, the number of users that respondedresponsive to being presented with the survey. The user interface 1000presents a widget 1020 that shows the number of questions that werepresented to the users. The user interface 1000 presents a widget 1030that shows a summary of the alerts including the number of populationsassociated with a selected set of alerts and number of teams associatedwith the selected set of alerts. The widget 1030 is configured toreceive a user input and present further information describing thealerts, for example, as shown in FIG. 11 .

FIG. 11 illustrates an exemplary user interface 1100 for presenting asummary of alerts (or anomalies), in accordance with an embodiment ofthe invention. The user interface 1100 shows information 1110 describingthe number of alerts selected for further analysis. The user interface1100 shows information 1120 describing the date when the data collectionwas performed. The user interface 1100 shows a widget 1120 that providesthe summary of alerts including the number of populations associatedwith the selected alerts and the number of teams associated with theselected alerts. The user interface 1100 widgets 1140 and 1150 thatselect alerts of specific types, for example, widget 1140 shows summaryof alerts that are associated with a predefined category of alertsindicating an elevated attrition risk and widget shows summary of alertsthat are associated with a predefined category of alerts indicating alow quality of service by users belonging to the population.

FIG. 12 illustrates an exemplary user interface 1200 presentinginformation describing alerts associated with a set of populations, inaccordance with an embodiment of the invention. The widget 1210 allowsusers to filter the sets of anomalies based on certain criteria, forexample to view all anomalies associated with populations filtered basedon a particular attribute such as gender, location, age, and so on. Fora particular anomaly, the user interface 1200 presents information intabular format, each row describing alerts for a population, and eachcolumn describing certain aspect of alerts associated with thepopulation. The column 1230 shows the number of respondents, column 1240shows the number of negative alerts (i.e., alerts categorized asindicating a negative news or information associated with a population),column 1250 shows the number of positive alerts 1240 (i.e., alertscategorized as indicating a positive news or information associated witha population), and column 1270 shows whether the alert is associatedwith a risk. The icons 1260 shows a summary of certain types of alertsas indicated by the row and column of the table and allow a user to viewdetails of the alerts summarized by the icon.

FIG. 13 illustrates an exemplary user interface 1300 presentinginformation describing a set of positive alerts, in accordance with anembodiment of the invention. The user interface 1300 shows the criteriaor filter used to specify the population associated with the alerts.Each row shown in the user interface 1300 represents a type of alert.The user interface 1300 shows the description 1310 of each alert, ascore 1320 associated with the alert, a different between the score 1320of the alert and a baseline, for example, a benchmark or a correspondingscore from a previous data collection. The user interface 1300 alsoshows a level of impact associated with the alert indicating whether thelevel of impact is high, very high, low, very low, and so on.

FIG. 14 illustrates an exemplary user interface presenting informationdescribing a set of negative alerts, in accordance with an embodiment ofthe invention. The information displayed by the user interface shown inFIG. 14 is similar to the information shown in the user interface ofFIG. 13 except that he alerts are positive and accordingly the change1410 in score compared to a baseline is positive.

Alternative Applications

The features and advantages described in the specification are not allinclusive and, in particular, many additional features and advantageswill be apparent to one of ordinary skill in the art in view of thedrawings, specification, and claims. Moreover, it should be noted thatthe language used in the specification has been principally selected forreadability and instructional purposes, and may not have been selectedto delineate or circumscribe the inventive subject matter.

The foregoing description of the embodiments of the invention has beenpresented for the purpose of illustration; it is not intended to beexhaustive or to limit the invention to the precise forms disclosed.Persons skilled in the relevant art can appreciate that manymodifications and variations are possible in light of the abovedisclosure.

Some portions of this description describe the embodiments of theinvention in terms of algorithms and symbolic representations ofoperations on information. These algorithmic descriptions andrepresentations are commonly used by those skilled in the dataprocessing arts to convey the substance of their work effectively toothers skilled in the art. These operations, while describedfunctionally, computationally, or logically, are understood to beimplemented by computer programs or equivalent electrical circuits,microcode, or the like. Furthermore, it has also proven convenient attimes, to refer to these arrangements of operations as modules, withoutloss of generality. The described operations and their associatedmodules may be embodied in software, firmware, hardware, or anycombinations thereof.

Any of the steps, operations, or processes described herein may beperformed or implemented with one or more hardware or software modules,alone or in combination with other devices. In one embodiment, asoftware module is implemented with a computer program productcomprising a computer-readable medium containing computer program code,which can be executed by a computer processor for performing any or allof the steps, operations, or processes described.

Embodiments of the invention may also relate to an apparatus forperforming the operations herein. This apparatus may be speciallyconstructed for the required purposes, and/or it may comprise ageneral-purpose computing device selectively activated or reconfiguredby a computer program stored in the computer. Such a computer programmay be stored in a tangible computer readable storage medium or any typeof media suitable for storing electronic instructions, and coupled to acomputer system bus. Furthermore, any computing systems referred to inthe specification may include a single processor or may be architecturesemploying multiple processor designs for increased computing capability.

Finally, the language used in the specification has been principallyselected for readability and instructional purposes, and it may not havebeen selected to delineate or circumscribe the inventive subject matter.It is therefore intended that the scope of the invention be limited notby this detailed description, but rather by any claims that issue on anapplication based hereon. Accordingly, the disclosure of the embodimentsof the invention is intended to be illustrative, but not limiting, ofthe scope of the invention, which is set forth in the following claims.

We claim:
 1. A method for generating alerts, the method comprising:storing in a database, a plurality of records, each record correspondingwith a user of an online system and including one or more attributesdescribing the user; applying filtering criteria to one or more valuesof the one or more attributes to determine a plurality of sets ofrecords; for each user corresponding with a record in a first set ofrecords, performing data collection to collect data from the user, by:presenting a user interface to a user, the user interface displaying asurvey including at least one question; and receiving, via the userinterface, data in response to the presentation of the survey to theuser; identifying one or more anomalies associated with userscorresponding with records in the first set of records by comparing anaggregate value, derived from the collected data, to a threshold value,derived from data previously collected from users corresponding withrecords in the first set of records; extracting from the collected dataone or more features associated with the one or more anomalies;providing the one or more features as input to a machine learning model,wherein the machine learning model is trained to generate, from theinput, a value for a metric representing a predicted outcome associatedwith the users corresponding with a record in the first set of records;with the machine learning model, deriving a value for the metric, forthe users corresponding with a record in the first set of records; andtransmitting an alert based on the value of the metric.
 2. The method ofclaim 1, wherein the predicted outcome represents one or more users of apopulation taking a particular action and the value of the metricrepresents a likelihood of the one or more users of the populationtaking the particular action.
 3. The method of claim 1, wherein thevalue of the metric represents a predicted attrition rate of users ofthe population.
 4. The method of claim 1, wherein the value of themetric represents a measure of satisfaction of users of the population.5. The method of claim 1, wherein the value of the metric represents alevel of performance of users of the population.
 6. The method of claim1, further comprising: training the machine learning model based onhistorical data relating to actions performed by users of one or morepopulations.
 7. A non-transitory computer-readable storage mediumstoring instructions for: storing in a database, a plurality of records,each record corresponding with a user of an online system and includingone or more attributes describing the user; applying filtering criteriato one or more values of the one or more attributes to determine aplurality of sets of records; for each user corresponding with a recordin a first set of records, performing data collection to collect datafrom the user, by: presenting a user interface to a user, the userinterface displaying a survey including at least one question; andreceiving, via the user interface, data in response to the presentationof the survey to the user; identifying one or more anomalies associatedwith users corresponding with records in the first set of records bycomparing an aggregate value, derived from the collected data, to athreshold value, derived from data collected from users correspondingwith records in a second set of records; extracting from the collecteddata one or more features associated with the the one or more anomalies;providing the one or more features as input to a machine learning model,wherein the machine learning model is trained to generate, from theinput, a value for a metric representing a predicted outcome associatedwith the users corresponding with a record in the first set of records;with the machine learning model, deriving a value for the metric, forthe users corresponding with a record in the first set of records; andtransmitting an alert based on the value of the metric.
 8. Thenon-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 7, wherein thepredicted outcome represents one or more users of a population taking aparticular action and the value of the metric represents a likelihood ofthe one or more users of the population taking the particular action. 9.A computer system comprising: a computer processor; and a non-transitorycomputer-readable storage medium storing instructions for execution bythe computer processor, the instructions for: storing in a database, aplurality of records, each record corresponding with a user of an onlinesystem and including one or more attributes describing the user;applying filtering criteria to one or more values of the one or moreattributes to determine a plurality of sets of records; for each usercorresponding with a record in a first set of records, performing datacollection to collect data from the user, by: presenting a userinterface to a user, the user interface displaying a survey including atleast one question; and receiving, via the user interface, data inresponse to the presentation of the survey to the user; identifying oneor more anomalies associated with users corresponding with records inthe first set of records by comparing an aggregate value, derived fromthe collected data, to a threshold value, derived from data previouslycollected from users corresponding records in the first set of records;extracting from the collected data one or more features associated withthe one or more anomalies; providing the one or more features as inputto a machine learning model, wherein the machine learning model istrained to generate, from the input, a value for a metric representing apredicted outcome associated with the users corresponding with a recordin the first set of records; with the machine learning model, deriving avalue for the metric, for the users corresponding with a record in thefirst set of records; and transmitting an alert based on the value ofthe metric.
 10. The computer system of claim 9, wherein the predictedoutcome represents one or more users of a population taking a particularaction and the value of the metric represents a likelihood of the one ormore users of the population taking the particular action.